The situation in Ukraine has taken a turn for the worse in the past few months. A civilian convoy was shelled on September 30 in the Zaporizka oblast. It was carrying supplies for civilians and relatives. Denise Brown, Humanitarian Coordinator for Ukraine, condemned the attack. She said the attack was just one of many throughout the country that day.(Also Read;The Top 5 Online Jobs You Can Do Without a Degree)
This is the Real situation in Ukraine
Economic collapse
The World Bank attributes the economic collapse of Ukraine to the country’s failure to pursue recommended stabilisation policies. While Ukraine is not alone in this, Russia and other former Soviet Union countries have experienced similar collapses. Most of the collapses are the same, and they have little to do with how quickly the countries joined the world market.
According to a report by the State Employment Center, unemployment in Ukraine has skyrocketed. In August, nine people applied for each job opening. The government intends to impose another lockdown after the holiday season, which is likely to raise unemployment in the country by an additional 15%. The sharp rise in unemployment is a clear sign that the economy is in trouble and needs to be fixed.
While the West is offering financial support, these contributions are becoming increasingly limited. The US recently pledged $1 billion in aid, but this has been criticized as being too modest. European leaders also refused to provide Ukraine with the 1.45 billion euros it needs to pay for Russian gas in advance. As a result, Kiev has depleted its foreign exchange reserves. In addition, the country is heavily dependent on foreign aid.
The IMF provided some resources to Ukraine, but the amount was not enough to make the transition successful. The NBU had to impose capital controls on banks in order to stabilize the country’s financial system. This approach is costly, but it will prevent the banks from running out of money and make their customers less likely to default on their loans.
Ukraine’s banking system survived for a year without a major crisis, but two banks have gone bankrupt this year. Moreover, Ukraine failed to fully utilize its $5 billion credit line with the IMF. As a result, it has been left with only one tranche of the loan rather than the expected three.
The Ukrainian economy is heavily integrated with the Russian economy. Russia provided the country with cheaper fuel and protected its markets from foreign competition. The country was also a hub for coal mining. As a part of the Soviet Union, Ukraine built an industrial base, including the biggest hydroelectric plant in Europe.
Diplomatic isolation
In a rare victory, the United Nations General Assembly has allowed Ukrainian President Viktor Zelenskyy to address its high-level session via video. While this move was not overwhelmingly popular, it was still an important win for the Ukrainian delegation. In April, Russia lost its seat on the board of UNICEF and other organizations. In June, almost 30 countries didn’t vote on a resolution about Ukraine.
In response to Russian provocations, the United States and its allies have begun a series of actions. The first step toward preventing a broader Russian military conflict in Ukraine is to ensure the Ukrainian government’s safety. In the last few years, the Ukrainian government has used armed forces more and more. In response, the West has used coercive diplomacy more and more to stop Russia from attacking again.
The latest step in this process is the appointment of a new Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba. Previously, Kuleba was an adviser to the Ukrainian President. He gives the impression of being a modern person, comfortable managing relationships and issues. In particular, the way he handles public diplomacy shows that he knows what the public thinks and how it affects him.
The failure of coercive diplomacy in Ukraine relates to George’s theory of coercive diplomacy. George’s contribution to international politics is less widely known than Schelling’s, but his concept is as important. In his book Forceful Persuasion, which came out in 1991 and was called Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War, he explains his theory.
The latest attack on Ukrainian territory has triggered a new diplomatic wave, with 25 EU and NATO members expelling 400 Russian diplomats in two months. Germany, France, and Poland led the way, expelling over 40 diplomats. A handful of NATO members have so far declined to join the effort. This wave has the potential to thwart Russian political and military interests.
Humanitarian crisis
The humanitarian consequences of the conflict in Ukraine must be given priority attention, and the Security Council should hold a meeting on the issue. The conflict has forced more than 7 million people to flee their homes, with 90% of them being children and women. The Council should take steps to ensure the safety of refugees and to prevent human trafficking. It must also recognize the efforts being made to provide psychosocial and mental health support to those in need. It should also acknowledge the solidarity of neighboring states, who are taking in millions of displaced people.
As fighting in Ukraine escalates, the situation has grown more dire. Food prices have skyrocketed and the cost of basic necessities has gone up. Grain exports from Ukraine have declined 46 per cent this year, and the impact is being felt in the region, which has over 80 million people living in poverty. The conflict is causing the worst food crisis in the last 70 years. More than 100,000 Red Cross volunteers and staff from Ukraine, its neighboring countries, and 17 other countries in the area are helping those affected by the conflict.
The conflict in Ukraine is now in its eighth month, and the country is now experiencing a huge refugee influx. According to the U.N., up to 18 million people will be affected by the conflict, with a further 7.7 million likely to be internally displaced. The UN estimates that up to three million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in the country.
The UN High-Level Humanitarian Council has called on the Russian Federation to abide by its obligations under international law and stop attacking civilians. The situation in Ukraine is a dire humanitarian situation, and the international community must work to alleviate the suffering. The crisis has been exacerbated by Russia’s involvement in the conflict.
International assistance and aid agencies have been responding to the crisis in Ukraine by mobilizing international solidarity and funding. The US-based CARE organization has launched a humanitarian appeal to provide lifesaving assistance for at least 4 million people. CARE‘s response has a regional approach, leveraging partnerships in the countries most affected by the crisis. CARE has teamed up with a number of groups in the area, such as the Polish Centre for International Aid, the Ukrainian House, the Charity Foundation Stabilization Support Services, and SERA.
Four plausible scenarios for an end to the conflict
The Russian military is increasing its military operations in Ukraine, threatening Kiev with airstrikes and cyber attacks. Ukraine’s communications networks are shut down. President Zelensky flees overseas. In return, President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces to maintain control. Meanwhile, thousands of refugees migrate west. If this scenario plays out, the conflict in Ukraine will end in peace.
One possibility is that Russia and Ukraine will reach a peace deal. In exchange, Ukraine will agree to maintain its independence and accept the Russian annexation of Crimea and parts of Donbas. Russia will also accept Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union. However, this scenario is unlikely.
Another possibility is that the conflict in Ukraine will spill over into other countries. This scenario could occur if President Putin attempts to reclaim more of Russia’s former empire, and Russia’s allies are unable to stop him. In that case, President Putin could send troops into other ex-Soviet countries that do not belong to Nato. The Russian president could also threaten to send his troops into Nato member states or set up a land corridor with Kaliningrad.
Russia is facing a manpower shortage due to its presence in Ukraine. While Russia has denied any involvement, Ukraine has reported a buildup of Russian forces near Donetsk and cross-border shelling. The conflict then went from a long stalemate to an active stalemate, with shelling happening all the time along the frontlines that separate the eastern borders that Russia controls.
The Russian military may decide to engage in a limited offensive to entrench its Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine and create a viable state in the region. Such an attack would require the massive mobilization of Russian forces. It would also mean a total abandonment of the cease-fire agreement.
The warfront’s southern shift has sparked international concern about nuclear disaster. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant near the Dnieper River is the largest in Europe and was captured by Russian forces in the early stages of the conflict. It’s no longer safe to run, and fighting near the plant has caused Enerhodar to lose power city-wide. (Also Read; The Top 5 Coins to Purchase in 2022)
